@Christopher.
Tomorrow (Friday) is what issues as a result of the ninth circuit court docket of appeals will resolve whether or not to supply an extension of the Non permanent Limiting Order till *they* rule on the FTC’s attraction or not, because the TRO expires on Midnight on Friday.
In the event that they lengthen the TRO tomorrow, then the attraction will occur and must undergo its complete hearings and such. The deal can not shut till both the court docket of appeals guidelines in opposition to the attraction, or the prolonged TRO expires once more.
If they don’t lengthen the TRO tomorrow, the attraction is lifeless except Microsoft/activision are feeling notably conciliatory.
With out a TRO extension, Microsoft/Activision can shut the deal at any level. The attraction solely goals for a Preliminary Injunction (because it appeals a call denying a preliminary injunction to start with), and preliminary injunctions cannot be retroactive. So if the deal is closed earlier than the Attraction court docket can rule, they can’t grant a preliminary injunction on one thing that already occurred, so the attraction is lifeless.
Then the FTC can nonetheless do their very own administrative course of and such (that’s utterly separate from the attraction and it was by no means vulnerable to not occurring except the FTC provides up), however at that time, they’ve some massive hurdles to leap, as a result of even when the executive court docket dominated in opposition to the merger, it is the FTC’s flip to be bogged in appeals, as a result of a divestiture order might be appealed by Microsoft by means of all three levels of judgment (all the way in which to the Supreme court docket) earlier than it turns into government.
Mainly, the query may be very binary and it will come out tomorrow by Friday at Midnight.
1: The Attraction Courtroom extends the TRO -> Attraction occurs, and we’ll need to see what occurs on its deserves.
2: The Attraction Courtroom declines to increase the TRO -> Microsoft has time to shut the deal, which successfully kills the attraction, and the FTC will likely be bogged in an extended and sophisticated course of to hunt both further cures or divestiture.